Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbfbcb286d351ff8b85e7d4be524c0a7daae20c54bfe292c079363c794a2271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c04…a98fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,150$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 348.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 338.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 250.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 69c | 196.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 168.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 149.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 27c | 139.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed Yes | 31c | 121.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 35c | 115$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 62c | 100.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 28c | 98.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 11c | 96.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 31c | 71.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 57c | 67.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 27c | 58.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 57.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 30c | 57.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 22c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 40c | 55.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 53.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 62c | 51.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 31c | 49.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 39c | 46.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…3e8ebacked Yes | 29c | 45.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb62b…09f5backed Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 26c | 42.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 40.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 32c | 40.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 60c | 39.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 64c | 39.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 28c | 36.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 36.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 68c | 35.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 68c | 35.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 69c | 35.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 57c | 33.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 68c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 67c | 31.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…676cbacked No | 37c | 27.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 43c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 26.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 78c | 23.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 19.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 62c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 68c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.