Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6b3d22ab159b391a95705b220a0ddf4a6d9764dbdf3023f8c9b0afc332ded7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 216.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 211.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 16c | 210.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 197.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…3de1backed Yes | 33c | 197.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 177.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 161.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 73c | 155.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 153.89$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 37c | 135.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 129.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ee84backed Yes | 23c | 125.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 114.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 102.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 21c | 101.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 100.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 70c | 97.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 26c | 96.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 85.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 13c | 80.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 80.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 15c | 79.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 18c | 77.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 24c | 73.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 73.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 66.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa055…7ffcbacked Yes | 43c | 66.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 66c | 60.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 31c | 57.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 54.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 38c | 54.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 51.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 68c | 49.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 70c | 49.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 22c | 49.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8053backed Yes | 40c | 48.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 47.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 41c | 47.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 45.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 67c | 45.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 44.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 70c | 41.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 39.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 37c | 37.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 35c | 29.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 36c | 28.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 74c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…c28ebacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 72c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 70c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.