Movies · resolved market
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f32bcb6d88c15d07c4a9f01591790e7b73c3e9892d3de491d47dd500281714d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 15c | 1,280$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked No | 53c | 252.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 236.2$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 202.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 170.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 43c | 62.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 50.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 57c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 56c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…f437backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes won
- Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.