Movies · resolved market
Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a8530d5ff9420143b41b653aae3ea7923010aa1c22602308352c086349e7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 74c | 3,497$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 22c | 2,749$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.28 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 12c | 1,662$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.71 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 557.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 396$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 22c | 275.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…7f92backed Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked Yes | 22c | 201$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 163.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 140.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 126.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 26c | 110.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 23c | 108.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 17c | 74.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c98…f380backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed Yes | 24c | 66.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 79c | 51.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 45.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes won
- Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.