Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f68810da0b3f46e74fb0c8c656e0c7a2e2f1549f2f8ef1bb2d6afb35f097f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 778.63$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.89 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 69c | 775.23$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 600.59$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 530.7$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 33c | 378.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.29 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 322.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 271.22$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 37c | 226.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 210$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…0e82backed Yes | 58c | 205.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 35c | 177.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 169.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 163.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 148.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 25c | 139.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 138.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 71c | 131.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 130.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 116.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 111$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 64c | 110.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 43c | 106.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 106.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 104.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 103.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 43c | 103.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 32c | 93.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 42c | 92.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 66c | 85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 12c | 84.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 62c | 80.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…6788backed Yes | 54c | 79.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 33c | 78.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 68.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 40c | 66.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 63.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 58.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 39c | 52.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked No | 71c | 49.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 63c | 47.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 40c | 46.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 45.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 36c | 44.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 42.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 41.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 39.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 40c | 35.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 34.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…f207backed No | 55c | 32.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 30.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 30.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 38c | 30.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked Yes | 40c | 25.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 55c | 23.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed No | 62c | 23.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd378…f282backed No | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed No | 62c | 21.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 63c | 18.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 62c | 17.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.