Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65cb561575ffd940e5297d23d5538ca5ab14594322629a8ef0e50acaa043d85e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 699.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 581$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 530.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 495.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 4c | 383.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 23c | 234$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 231.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 206.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 196$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 189.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 27c | 185.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 34c | 180.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 25c | 169.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 24c | 136.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 75c | 130.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 127.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 116.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 99.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc753…b617backed Yes | 33c | 96.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 86.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 85.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 64.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 59.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 29c | 46.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 40.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked No | 70c | 40.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 39.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 39c | 38.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 70c | 35.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 33.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 30.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 28.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 76c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.