MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f783b0921b0064ba8bb7435a0be6491e8876cb80021752bbbb546d39f835340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 42c | 2,100$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 1,709$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.15 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 57c | 523.69$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 70c | 139.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 43c | 123.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 46c | 108.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 42c | 104.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 59c | 84.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 77c | 82.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 54c | 74.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 22c | 66.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 55.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…9778backed Yes | 46c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…0366backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…23fabacked Yes | 47c | 29.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…3b70backed Yes | 47c | 29.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…74f1backed Yes | 47c | 29.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…c7f6backed Yes | 46c | 29.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…8179backed Yes | 47c | 28.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…e320backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Yes | 47c | 27.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…bed7backed Yes | 47c | 27.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 52c | 27.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…9f54backed Yes | 47c | 27.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…d8f7backed Yes | 47c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3375…727bbacked Yes | 47c | 26.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed No | 49c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…d59bbacked Yes | 47c | 26.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…cc0abacked Yes | 47c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…24a8backed Yes | 47c | 26.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bc…afb5backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…aa45backed Yes | 47c | 25.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…b7d4backed Yes | 47c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…a9fbbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…fb30backed Yes | 47c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…ccffbacked Yes | 47c | 24.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…1dfebacked Yes | 47c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…4d66backed Yes | 47c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5c…0380backed Yes | 47c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…8698backed Yes | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked No | 49c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…18b0backed Yes | 47c | 24.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…7854backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…0ab2backed Yes | 46c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…575abacked Yes | 47c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…85a8backed Yes | 47c | 23.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…8194backed Yes | 47c | 23.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b8…d280backed Yes | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed Yes | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…c11fbacked Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…ae3cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…618cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f6dcbacked Yes | 46c | 22.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…7835backed Yes | 47c | 22.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…f426backed Yes | 47c | 21.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…77d2backed Yes | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.