MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0fea26d19f0a8897f443c2d3eebf1e17408abe542b12bbe438ec8b866e6766f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 12,613$8,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 7,610$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 6,803$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 3,999$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 2,013$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 1,543$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,534$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.23 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.71 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 1,247$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 1,227$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.88 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,060$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.98 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 870$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 856.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 586.17$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 470$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 454.56$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 449.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.81 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 370.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 351.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 328.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 243.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 236.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…3ed2backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 193.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 171.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 156$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 130.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 107.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 102.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 100.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 94.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 90.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 76.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 68.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 51.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…722ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 40.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 40.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 39.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 38.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 37.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…988cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 34.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 29.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 24.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.