NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fa19ba770a8c59af0d9bfbb668e8f03dfc34147a2b4ab9cc5672ef7793be4a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 2c | 8,003$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.17 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 16c | 689.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 40c | 474.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.56 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 59c | 433.9$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.9 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 41c | 383.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 62c | 371.47$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.79 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 17c | 307.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.59 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 281.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.53 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 267.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 261.42$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 55c | 184$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 55c | 133.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 65c | 125$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 112.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 55c | 101.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 68.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 385 | 40.3%155 W · 230 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Under | 61c | 34.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 58c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5this page
- CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-17.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Trail Blazers vs. HawksHawks won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.