Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc4cfeafb63ba4e497848a96fd91e8b97ef5e4fc368123ddb7ba4e2e4baba2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 23,716$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.21 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 43c | 4,679$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 2,526$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.5 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 1,312$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.93 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 1,021$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.72 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 39c | 965.29$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.46 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 20c | 723.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 718.92$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.73 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 62c | 533.83$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…1981backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 459.5$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 75c | 393.33$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 23c | 333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed Yes | 26c | 314.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 312.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 27c | 280.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…bfe0backed Yes | 26c | 277.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 25c | 267$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…b812backed Yes | 24c | 211.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 19c | 185$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 20c | 177.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 25c | 165.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…cd31backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 23c | 128.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…1524backed Yes | 42c | 118.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 58c | 99.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 37cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 25c | 99.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed No | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 90.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 25c | 89.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 17c | 88.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…dcefbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 71c | 79.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 21c | 79.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 77.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Yes | 15c | 70.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 75c | 56.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 43.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8875…802fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…076bbacked Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…cc00backed No | 77c | 22.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…e214backed No | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-29?Yes won
- Will SS Lazio win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.