Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fda8d5dc8beac55ddecdc7c6c7c14e85f4330c30d934737f69f0d8bf28285e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 5c | 942.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 904.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 747.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 8c | 614.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 396.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 371.16$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 10c | 322.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 302.67$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 202.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 198$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 28c | 175.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 166.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 63c | 150.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 143.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 74c | 135.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 37c | 133.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 120.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 107.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 22c | 105.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 100.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 95.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 72c | 89.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 87.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 27c | 74.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 69.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 25c | 67.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 25c | 67.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 67.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 30c | 57.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 54.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 52.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 20c | 52.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 50.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 48.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 42.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 31c | 32.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 31.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 31.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 75c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 70c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 77c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 70c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 68c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.