Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572bfc765f129117fcd61a4b381ac7bd7b86190216d407b1b950f306f738aa29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 0c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,771$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 963.82$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 17c | 594.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.54 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 2c | 587.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…b830backed No | 5c | 555.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 2c | 504.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 4c | 466.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 465.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 67c | 415.51$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 391.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 350.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 348.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 334.64$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 287.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 217.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 204.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.46 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 24c | 196.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 20c | 169.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 20c | 159.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 156$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 147.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 138.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 79c | 127.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 26c | 119.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 18c | 109.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 94.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 17c | 92.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 90.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…33aebacked Yes | 32c | 84.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Yes | 15c | 82.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 50c | 79.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 75c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 19c | 74.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 22c | 74.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 67.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 72c | 66.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 20c | 66.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 18c | 62.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 53c | 53.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed No | 74c | 50.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 70c | 47.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 70c | 47.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 28c | 43.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 41.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 27c | 40.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 74c | 36.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 32c | 36.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 77c | 35.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 44c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 32.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 31.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 73c | 30.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 44c | 30.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec24…8adabacked Yes | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 28.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 27.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…07b5backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 74c | 23.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 66c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 18.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 16.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 80c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 74c | 14.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…a1dbbacked Yes | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.