Valorant · resolved market

Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8016554304a9deec8b26363a2a10b0d76556f53ac07f2d8f791f80b8c2fdc0ab

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FURIA Esportsof Leviatán Esports, FURIA Esports
Resolved: Jul 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $113,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $127,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,396 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Valorant
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8660…93edbacked Leviatán Esports	51c	61,639$31,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31,286.36	179	48.6%87 W · 92 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed FURIA Esports	49c	44,724$21,915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,809.22	343	56.9%195 W · 148 L	+23.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked FURIA Esports	49c	26,128$12,803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,325.21	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Leviatán Esports	51c	23,456$11,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,898.97	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FURIA Esports	49c	10,272$5,066 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,205.69	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.19per pick	58cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Leviatán Esports	51c	8,000$4,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,080	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed FURIA Esports	50c	4,470$2,244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,226.56	65	70.8%46 W · 19 L	+8.7wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked FURIA Esports	50c	1,925$966 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$958.21	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FURIA Esports	52c	1,741$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$844.12	639	55.6%355 W · 284 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd794…248bbacked Leviatán Esports	51c	1,357$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.9	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Leviatán Esports	49c	999.98$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.99	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked FURIA Esports	50c	850.98$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.98	103	46.6%48 W · 55 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed FURIA Esports	51c	723.43$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.48	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed FURIA Esports	53c	679$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.13	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Leviatán Esports	47c	638.99$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.33	547	51.2%280 W · 267 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked FURIA Esports	49c	609.29$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.49	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed FURIA Esports	49c	510.02$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.02	186	41.4%77 W · 109 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Leviatán Esports	51c	489$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.39	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked FURIA Esports	51c	483.28$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.81	121	43%52 W · 69 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Leviatán Esports	51c	483$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.33	361	38.5%139 W · 222 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6691…5a83backed FURIA Esports	50c	478$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed FURIA Esports	50c	402$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FURIA Esports	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	785	62.8%493 W · 292 L	+56.2wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed FURIA Esports	51c	379.98$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.19	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked FURIA Esports	52c	345$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.9	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+4.1wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked FURIA Esports	50c	310$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked FURIA Esports	50c	251$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.07	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…3543backed Leviatán Esports	47c	249.69$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.77	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked FURIA Esports	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	258	43%111 W · 147 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed FURIA Esports	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	238	47.9%114 W · 124 L	+14.8wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed FURIA Esports	50c	217.84$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.84	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+5.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+21%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Leviatán Esports	51c	215.69$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	199	45.2%90 W · 109 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed FURIA Esports	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	+7.1wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Leviatán Esports	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	255	55.7%142 W · 113 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked FURIA Esports	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	59cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x009c…049bbacked FURIA Esports	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed FURIA Esports	53c	199.33$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.68	634	47.9%304 W · 330 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed FURIA Esports	49c	196.99$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.46	230	55.7%128 W · 102 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd83…d102backed FURIA Esports	50c	172.2$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.1	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+4.4wins	+0.22per pick	48cpaid	+57.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Leviatán Esports	46c	163.04$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	87	34.5%30 W · 57 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked FURIA Esports	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	164	51.8%85 W · 79 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA Esports	54c	140$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.85	796	50%398 W · 398 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2944…cf36backed Leviatán Esports	46c	139.99$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.4	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FURIA Esports	51c	130.93$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.18	520	50%260 W · 260 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked FURIA Esports	47c	125$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.25	553	48.3%267 W · 286 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Leviatán Esports	49c	114.74$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.18	396	46%182 W · 214 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08d…7b1bbacked Leviatán Esports	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b5…ecffbacked Leviatán Esports	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	57.8%48 W · 35 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed FURIA Esports	49c	80.16$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.88	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Leviatán Esports	51c	76.59$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	285	41.1%117 W · 168 L	-26.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x230d…c39bbacked FURIA Esports	51c	65.69$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed FURIA Esports	52c	62.33$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.86	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked FURIA Esports	51c	61.18$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.98	79	44.3%35 W · 44 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a9…96ecbacked Leviatán Esports	50c	61.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93cf…c08abacked Leviatán Esports	51c	59.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19a…2d2dbacked FURIA Esports	51c	43.59$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.36	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Leviatán Esports	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	251	41.4%104 W · 147 L	-7.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked FURIA Esports	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	203	47.3%96 W · 107 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Leviatán Esports	50c	38.84$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	543	42.4%230 W · 313 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Leviatán Esports	46c	35.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	492	55.3%272 W · 220 L	+23.7wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked FURIA Esports	49c	24.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.66	264	50%132 W · 132 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfa…5e79backed Leviatán Esports	51c	23.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed FURIA Esports	68c	21.82$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.94	391	66%258 W · 133 L	+24.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed Leviatán Esports	50c	20.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	438	43.6%191 W · 247 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked FURIA Esports	54c	20.37$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.37	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07e…9fc3backed FURIA Esports	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Leviatán Esports	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e0…1d15backed Leviatán Esports	70c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	71cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)this page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)Leviatán Esports won
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)Leviatán Esports won
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)FURIA Esports won
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)Leviatán Esports won
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5Over won
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group AlphaLeviatán Esports won
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 WinnerLeviatán Esports won
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports - Map 2 WinnerFURIA Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event