Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80203fa3134cac5ae0cedd5d82a3ad727dbbff0b35f33209966a9fea505925ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,803$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,726$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 4c | 1,275$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 1,235$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 800$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 2c | 777.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 737.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 686.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 11c | 527.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 506.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 474.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 8c | 453.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 10c | 404.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 397.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 14c | 350.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 9c | 301.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 15c | 279.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 248.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 239.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 218.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 196.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 80c | 195.92$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 12c | 188.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 13c | 184.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 11c | 176.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 11c | 173.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 169.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 169.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Yes | 10c | 162.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 19c | 154.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 143.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 13c | 140.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 125.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 17c | 118.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 12c | 117.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…0f89backed Yes | 19c | 105.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…7b2dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 17c | 98.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 20c | 90.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 23c | 58.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 36.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 76c | 36.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 14.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.