Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9131e2e3cea965fea44794fa77728443d36274faa6a4039e72fccc0b0803aff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 3c | 2,154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 1,121$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 5c | 957.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 11c | 900.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 8c | 842.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 12c | 566.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 7c | 487.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 6c | 459.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 455.81$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed No | 11c | 450.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 435.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked No | 9c | 419.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked No | 16c | 398.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 373.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked No | 6c | 356.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 332.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 13c | 244.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 231.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 80c | 225.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 70c | 219.72$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 12c | 180.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…491bbacked No | 13c | 160.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 157.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 50c | 148.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked No | 15c | 146.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 144.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 47c | 140.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 124.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 9c | 120.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 11c | 116.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 48c | 115.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 111.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 18c | 105.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 16c | 100.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 13c | 95.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 78c | 95.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 88.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 21c | 85.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 55c | 82.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 13c | 80.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 50c | 76.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 49c | 74.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 74.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 16c | 72.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 25c | 70.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 49c | 67.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 30c | 66.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 28c | 65.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 65.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 54c | 59.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 55c | 57.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 52c | 50.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…b6ecbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 49.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 49.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 48c | 48.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 47c | 47.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 55c | 47.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45b…53b5backed Yes | 50c | 46.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272a…88cfbacked No | 23c | 46.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 54c | 43.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 47c | 43.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 49c | 43.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 24c | 42.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 54c | 40.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 59c | 40.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 37c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 79c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 57c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 32c | 33.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…74fdbacked Yes | 50c | 30.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 56c | 29.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…c653backed Yes | 54c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 49c | 27.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 69c | 26.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 50c | 26.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…ab82backed Yes | 61c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 54c | 23.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 52c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 70c | 21.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 51c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 66c | 20.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 13.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.