Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf86bc097623ee262b0572357777c8968e8730273cfe2815839dcc3f5a18898e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfff5…108fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,864$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 9c | 544.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…0f04backed Yes | 22c | 524.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 516.51$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.59 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 55c | 456.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.52 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 52c | 367.52$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 66c | 343.04$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.37 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 321.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 310.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 59c | 305.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 60c | 290.47$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 230.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 212.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 56c | 184.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 55c | 167.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 62c | 166.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 162.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 59c | 158.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 146.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 146$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 143.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 25c | 141.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 132.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 131.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 79c | 123.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 123.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 121.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed Yes | 25c | 120.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 116.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 70c | 115.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd7…1d26backed Yes | 67c | 108.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 41c | 108.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked No | 45c | 107.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 64c | 100.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 99.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 98.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes | 31c | 92.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 40c | 90.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 89.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 45c | 88.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…c639backed Yes | 24c | 84.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 59c | 83.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 55c | 83.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 83.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 81.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb4…622fbacked No | 40c | 79.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 79.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 74.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 70.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 66.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 45c | 63.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 30c | 62.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 61.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 46c | 60.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 27c | 59.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…b1e6backed Yes | 45c | 59.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 57.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 36c | 56.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 35c | 56.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 25c | 54.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 53.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 51.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…b6ecbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 49.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 49.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 45.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 24c | 42.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 48c | 39.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…d6d9backed Yes | 64c | 37.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 57c | 37.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 52c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 50c | 36.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…573ebacked Yes | 40c | 35.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 34.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 37c | 32.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 54c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 29.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed Yes | 56c | 29.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…9c3cbacked Yes | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 80c | 28.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…6eb0backed Yes | 46c | 27.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.