College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80278ab65cb21bc755e319cde7c7ade48614a9aa6f4c1c0a2e5cdba257c73d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof Oregon, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Oregon | 50c | 32,918$16,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,329.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Iowa | 50c | 28,825$14,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,412.5 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Iowa | 52c | 19,394$10,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,331.26 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Oregon | 50c | 12,950$6,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,475.21 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Oregon | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Iowa | 53c | 9,971$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,712.48 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Oregon | 46c | 5,082$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.77 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Iowa | 52c | 3,740$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.47 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Iowa | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Iowa | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Oregon | 46c | 2,276$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Iowa | 51c | 1,950$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.49 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Oregon | 42c | 1,247$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.74 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Oregon | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Oregon | 48c | 1,054$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.92 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Iowa | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon | 48c | 1,000$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oregon | 43c | 974.85$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.39 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Oregon | 44c | 916$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Oregon | 49c | 817.67$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Iowa | 50c | 817$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Iowa | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Iowa | 50c | 576$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.24 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Oregon | 48c | 448.4$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.25 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Iowa | 50c | 445$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Oregon | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Oregon | 51c | 414.78$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…0d78backed Oregon | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Oregon | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Oregon | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Oregon | 49c | 309.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Oregon | 53c | 299$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.46 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon | 46c | 296.09$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon | 49c | 242.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Oregon | 51c | 217.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Oregon | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Iowa | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Iowa | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Iowa | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Oregon | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Oregon | 52c | 190.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Iowa | 48c | 166.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Oregon | 49c | 166.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…f152backed Iowa | 49c | 132.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Iowa | 52c | 114.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Oregon | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Oregon | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…b610backed Oregon | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…8445backed Oregon | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Oregon | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Oregon | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Oregon | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a8…432cbacked Oregon | 51c | 85.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Oregon | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Oregon | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Oregon | 54c | 70.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Iowa | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Iowa | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Oregon | 47c | 53.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Oregon | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Iowa | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Oregon | 47c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Oregon | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Iowa | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked Oregon | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…62c7backed Iowa | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Oregon | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Iowa | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…c0e1backed Oregon | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Iowa | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7a…2218backed Oregon | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…8056backed Iowa | 55c | 18.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-6.5)this page
- O/U 41.5Under won
- Oregon vs. IowaOregon won
- Oregon vs. Iowa: O/U 40.5Under won
- Oregon vs. Iowa: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-5.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.