Earnings · resolved market
Will Palantir say "Government Contract" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x803a936903e9c03b66f09d89bcf9e8249aaea371bf39c4762d3db2023ba9def6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 32c | 577.64$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed No | 78c | 248$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 74c | 209.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 80c | 159.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 74c | 147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 77c | 142$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 24c | 139.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 32c | 133.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 127$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…f8f9backed Yes | 24c | 84.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…32b4backed Yes | 29c | 82.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…600cbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 66c | 67.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 32c | 61.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…ce43backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 35c | 43.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir say "Government Contract" during earnings call?this page
- Will Palantir say "AI Growth" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Commercial Growth" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Palantir say "Foundry" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Palantir say "Hadean" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Revenue guidance" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Palantir say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Warp Speed" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.