Fifa International · resolved market
Spain to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8060458da87a5848c1a7b85e673939fafb2be55025cf5deb47b8a18d53ec5e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 43c | 4,255$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.52 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 57c | 3,976$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.13 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,324$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.85 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.99 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 56c | 1,149$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.58 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…681dbacked No | 57c | 860$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.2 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 771.64$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.31 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 657.83$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.98 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 45c | 504.46$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.58 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…02febacked No | 58c | 410$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.8 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 61c | 397.2$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed No | 59c | 363.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 59c | 297.48$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 55c | 269.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 756 | 30.4%230 W · 526 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea9…9d42backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 58c | 151.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 40c | 110.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…33b8backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…49bcbacked Yes | 43c | 99.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…b08abacked Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…9179backed Yes | 44c | 92.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…7380backed Yes | 45c | 89.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 345 | 37.1%128 W · 217 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…dcb4backed No | 26c | 89.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 73c | 71.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed No | 57c | 54.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…c69fbacked No | 56c | 51.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…270abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -16.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 197 | 60.4%119 W · 78 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 60c | 45.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 175 | 69.1%121 W · 54 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…a6c5backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2c…88c6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 185 | 62.2%115 W · 70 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e0…7398backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 55c | 24.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 18.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spain to win the second half?this page
- Portugal to win the second half?No won
- Portugal vs. Spain: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.