Premier League · resolved market
Will Netherlands win Group D?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808bb36a2ca984d8d827afbb40d338584576b7b9a8287401c7d5d01e92541cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 26c | 4,376$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 35c | 2,222$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 65c | 1,469$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.13 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 71c | 1,399$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…7094backed Yes | 25c | 750$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…4aaabacked Yes | 34c | 585.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 35c | 387.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 33c | 188.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Yes | 35c | 141.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 21c | 125.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 26c | 118.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2207backed Yes | 36c | 55.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…8890backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…cafabacked Yes | 37c | 54.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ade8backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 64c | 45.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 59c | 37.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…63dbbacked No | 75c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8202…2c29backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 74c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands win Group D?this page
- Will Austria win Group D?Yes won
- Will France win Group D?No won
- Will Poland win Group D?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.