TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0256…dc3ebacked Yes3c5,033$176 inLost-$175.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265c…7e6bbacked Yes4c4,768$172 inLost-$171.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29d…6601backed Yes3c2,935$102 inLost-$102.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8de…3016backed Yes4c2,920$105 inLost-$105.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbe…0d8fbacked Yes3c2,642$79 inLost-$79.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427b…978cbacked Yes3c2,500$79 inLost-$78.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe081…f463backed Yes3c2,423$63 inLost-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3f…17efbacked Yes3c2,362$61 inLost-$61.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14f…f1cfbacked Yes3c2,280$57 inLost-$5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…cf99backed Yes3c2,009$52 inLost-$52.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb6…00a0backed Yes3c1,958$51 inLost-$50.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes10c1,942$185 inLost-$185.151238.9%11 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff1…67a0backed Yes4c1,892$66 inLost-$66.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c1,861$51 inLost-$51.352,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a0f…e72abacked Yes3c1,831$46 inLost-$45.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b1…8c7ebacked Yes4c1,694$59 inLost-$59.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f1…65f8backed Yes3c1,432$37 inLost-$37.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes2c1,417$26 inLost-$25.821128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4f…038ebacked Yes4c1,385$48 inLost-$48.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef1…217fbacked Yes3c1,341$34 inLost-$33.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f12…2f31backed Yes3c1,265$33 inLost-$32.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4813…f31cbacked Yes3c1,007$26 inLost-$26.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…bb6fbacked Yes2c818$19 inLost-$18.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf400…83adbacked Yes3c816$20 inLost-$20.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5722…1658backed Yes4c764$31 inLost-$30.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141d…8564backed Yes2c742$17 inLost-$17.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c02…fc66backed Yes3c730$19 inLost-$18.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+941.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef77…e829backed Yes3c719$18 inLost-$17.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e07…bf5ebacked Yes2c718$17 inLost-$16.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d7…845fbacked Yes3c689$17 inLost-$17.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe309…13c3backed Yes3c683$17 inLost-$17.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf669…4d34backed Yes2c675$16 inLost-$15.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e86…03b5backed Yes3c661$17 inLost-$16.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb389…f59cbacked Yes2c647.54$16 inLost-$161216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5234…2176backed Yes3c601$15 inLost-$15.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d30…33c8backed Yes4c533$21 inLost-$21.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes3c490.32$14 inLost-$13.5650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f3…3137backed Yes2c485$11 inLost-$11.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes6c452.6$25 inLost-$25.17849.5%8 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Yes2c451.45$11 inLost-$10.83100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes9c143.99$13 inLost-$12.9624710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes15c86.49$13 inLost-$12.7851018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.