Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80c96995d1eb38d40cf55e586d39763f171d80b2b39233ad19da280d064392b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 25c | 802.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…b084backed Yes | 57c | 626$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 43c | 500.94$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 17c | 378.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 66c | 309.95$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 40c | 307$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 56c | 272.91$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 215.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 193$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 130.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 62c | 105.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 55c | 97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 54c | 94.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 85.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 84.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 22c | 53.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 52c | 49.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed No | 63c | 47.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 67c | 41.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 59c | 41.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 60c | 40.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…9297backed Yes | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 28.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 65c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed No | 64c | 27.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.