Fifa International · resolved market
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e7c0995eff162f6a74550aef42f91b7b00f417c72d899a48da68d0cf8632c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 6c | 7,215$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.3 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 10c | 6,288$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.32 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 10c | 3,218$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.84 | 630 | 35.7%225 W · 405 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 9c | 3,150$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 10c | 2,932$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 302 | 20.2%61 W · 241 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 9c | 1,766$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 1,563$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 9c | 1,399$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked No | 9c | 835$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 250 | 31.6%79 W · 171 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6f6abacked No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 10c | 619.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 427 | 10.3%44 W · 383 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 3c | 526$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 10c | 516.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 8c | 485.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 301 | 17.9%54 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 8c | 474.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed No | 5c | 405.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 10c | 369.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…8ee5backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…5828backed No | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed No | 9c | 207$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 205.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked No | 10c | 199.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 19.9%28 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 9c | 169.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 10c | 164.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…d869backed Yes | 78c | 153.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 248 | 37.1%92 W · 156 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked No | 7c | 143.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 8c | 131.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 12c | 112.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed No | 22c | 95.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…a723backed Yes | 79c | 94.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05?this page
- Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw?No won
- Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.