WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ebe0bc5a5c7a9aa119c25ec3aea7b5288ae5c8ec4a89b6531f9fff43c21d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 54c | 5,236$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.13 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 3,354$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.79 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 1,389$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.33 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 1,078$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.06 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 1,047$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.22 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 840.71$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 770.24$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.33 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 728.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Dream | 55c | 570.48$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.71 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 367.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 276$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…bf62backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 269.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 211.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 199.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Atlanta Dream | 56c | 195.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 177.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 159.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…3f54backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 148.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 106.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 102.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…ec19backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 56c | 90.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Atlanta Dream | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 68.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +10.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 39.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Atlanta Dream | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 34.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 32.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 180.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 181.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 182.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 183.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.