WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dacd8ac39e755ff89334aa4a07c73a87cc08c276eb2cda39db105a3ff2f42bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 25,500$12,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,449.94 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 20,481$10,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,035.38 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 6,052$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,905.48 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 4,088$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.99 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Atlanta Dream | 51c | 3,250$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 3,132$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 1,932$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.29 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 1,402$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.98 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…907ebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…722bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 19c | 1,087$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b31…3e10backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 542.23$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.69 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 426.2$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.49 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 32c | 300.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 247.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…8862backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 215.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 174.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 142.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Atlanta Dream | 51c | 140.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 137.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Atlanta Dream | 77c | 98.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Atlanta Dream | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 84.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Dream | 73c | 79.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 41.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 38c | 34.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…303bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 29.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 28.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta Dream | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Atlanta Dream | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Dream | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Atlanta Dream | 55c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe28d…9c81backed Atlanta Dream | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 180.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 181.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 182.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 183.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.