WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31d9c65ed197ff9a033bcd1e1f482d5b41f92b98b241f575aefd6d81b726fd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Under | 40c | 2,402$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 60c | 2,294$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.51 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 61c | 1,977$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.81 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 1,687$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.61 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 1,619$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.4 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 1,281$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.5 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 40c | 730$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…884ebacked Under | 57c | 699.88$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…644abacked Over | 79c | 631.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 50c | 336.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.42 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 315.69$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 45c | 264.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…54f5backed Over | 39c | 259.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 241$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Under | 18c | 231.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…9fb5backed Under | 48c | 208.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 22c | 192.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.33 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 188.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 62c | 182.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 49c | 182$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Over | 70c | 179.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.23 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 43c | 173.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 38c | 170.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 19c | 153.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 13c | 146.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 135$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…ec19backed Over | 60c | 127.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Over | 34c | 117.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 115.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 54c | 110.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 35c | 108.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 103.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a13…0512backed Over | 54c | 92.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 34c | 88.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 40c | 83.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 44c | 82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Over | 56c | 79.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 33c | 77.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 40c | 76.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 67c | 75.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Over | 60c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 40c | 67.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 36c | 61.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 60c | 58.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 33c | 56.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 63c | 54.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 33c | 46.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 45.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 42c | 45.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 31c | 44.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…c64abacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 51c | 37.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 38c | 37.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…26adbacked Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 34c | 31.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 37c | 30.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Over | 37c | 27.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 62c | 27.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…a128backed Over | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 57c | 20.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 180.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 181.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 182.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 183.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.