Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80f3d8ab3695b8290f620017c03b3b0b593b4bbbaf366add5e657139515bfcf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 49c | 701.39$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 7c | 595.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 11c | 452.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.17 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 17c | 420.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 176 | 18.8%33 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 12c | 418.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.58 | 789 | 27.9%220 W · 569 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 385.88$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 3c | 334.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 12c | 322.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 16c | 293.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.51 | 1,021 | 51.1%522 W · 499 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes | 74c | 292.66$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 6c | 292.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 278.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 23c | 278.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 77c | 244.89$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 429 | 45.5%195 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 242.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.04 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 228.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 14c | 185$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 1,651 | 27.7%458 W · 1,193 L | +118.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 170.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 18c | 170.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.52 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 6c | 170.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 74c | 162.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 64c | 154.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 72c | 154.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 153.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 141.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 137.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 136.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 130.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 120.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 32c | 116.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 785 | 57.8%454 W · 331 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed Yes | 80c | 115$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…1b39backed Yes | 65c | 112.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 11c | 101.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | +25.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 24c | 98.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 92.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 521 | 43.6%227 W · 294 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 89.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 81.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 75c | 78.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 631 | 60.2%380 W · 251 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 18c | 77.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 37c | 76.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 75c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 447 | 66.9%299 W · 148 L | +39.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 74c | 74.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 63.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 696 | 58.5%407 W · 289 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 80c | 50.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 253 | 61.7%156 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 221 | 48.4%107 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…218abacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 77c | 39.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 174 | 75.3%131 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 77c | 39.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 36.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6439…2e49backed Yes | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 77c | 19.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 63c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 470 | 63.6%299 W · 171 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 14.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.