Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f6e98aff7bc0472a94218694ce56f61a13b39bb5750d3653cb2f1b37a937a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.42 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 53c | 1,131$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.7 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.98 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 781.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.64 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 587.88$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.62 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 44c | 581.54$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.88 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 489.83$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 467.69$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.11 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 437.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.54 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 431.64$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 330$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 300.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 76c | 299.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 281.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 8c | 268.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.17 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 4c | 252.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.09 | 303 | 69%209 W · 94 L | +28.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 9c | 245.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.65 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 5c | 242.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.73 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 204.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.63 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 49c | 197.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 8c | 144.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 136.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 135.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 61c | 131.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 124.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 54c | 110.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 80c | 105.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…459cbacked Yes | 15c | 104.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 49c | 102.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 96.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…d21fbacked Yes | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 47c | 93.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 87.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 87.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 81.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 72.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 70.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 57c | 69.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 16c | 67.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 67.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 69c | 67.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2514…ad27backed Yes | 52c | 64.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 58c | 63.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 50c | 60.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 59.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 51c | 58.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 58.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 58c | 53.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 51c | 48.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…ad7abacked No | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 44.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…61b5backed No | 47c | 44.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 223 | 65%145 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 43.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 40.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 62c | 40.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 63c | 39.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 47c | 38.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 32.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 72c | 32.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 43c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 56c | 28.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 57c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 56c | 24.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 53c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86ad…f0f7backed Yes | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -32.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 57c | 17.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 73c | 13.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.