Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ffed30bbbe7752906e6916e8085eaee34f9a86ffefaf8aa24795c09548488bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 920.51$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 409 | 37.9%155 W · 254 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 600.36$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 26c | 472.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 789 | 27.9%220 W · 569 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 467.2$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 403.76$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 395.27$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 29c | 331.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 271.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 264.01$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 22c | 262.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 109 | 15.6%17 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 24c | 253.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 253$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 517 | 66.9%346 W · 171 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 239.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 29c | 229.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | -12.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 50c | 215.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +16.5wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 213.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 631 | 60.2%380 W · 251 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 213$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 209.96$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 60c | 204.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 203$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 183.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 29c | 179.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 188 | 50.5%95 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 169$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 168.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 162.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 160.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 153.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 333 | 84.4%281 W · 52 L | +38.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 136.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 125.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 124.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 124.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 1,021 | 51.1%522 W · 499 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 73c | 122.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 499 | 48.3%241 W · 258 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 33c | 119.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 540 | 33.1%179 W · 361 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 39c | 117.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 113.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 111.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 111$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 785 | 57.8%454 W · 331 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 110.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 68c | 110.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 17c | 108.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 104.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 21c | 104.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 103.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 267 | 43.4%116 W · 151 L | -16.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 11c | 97.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 84.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 74.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…459cbacked Yes | 17c | 74.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 16c | 73.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 176 | 18.8%33 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 76c | 72.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 71.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 35c | 70.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 68.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 68.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 67.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 42c | 65.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 26c | 65.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 35c | 63.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 28c | 61.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 61.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 642 | 76.6%492 W · 150 L | +98.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 58.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 253 | 68.8%174 W · 79 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 56.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 403 | 45.9%185 W · 218 L | +29.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 429 | 45.5%195 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 30c | 55.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 157 | 25.5%40 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 55.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 56c | 53.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 30c | 53.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 53.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 60c | 49.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 73cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 48.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 696 | 58.5%407 W · 289 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 30c | 45.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 24c | 44.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 459 | 59.5%273 W · 186 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 43.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 27c | 41.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 76c | 39.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 190 | 48.9%93 W · 97 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 37.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 34c | 36.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 321 | 68.2%219 W · 102 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 69c | 34.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 32.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 195 | 34.9%68 W · 127 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 28.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 470 | 63.6%299 W · 171 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 69c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 70c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 137 | 61.3%84 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…1b39backed No | 66c | 20.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.