MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8106df34e8264bfa68dc2ac011c2f5ba5c068e9fc53244fd52f32ed76a71c1c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 56c | 6,500$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,639.99 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 62c | 5,587$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.93 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 1,302$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,021$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.68 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 787.73$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 524.13$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 513.93$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 399$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 45c | 325$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 54c | 276.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 215.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 71c | 178.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 62c | 172.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Over | 45c | 167$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked Under | 25c | 129$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 46c | 118.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 115.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 52c | 111.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 63c | 98.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 46c | 74.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 55c | 73.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1014backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 48c | 65.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 62.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 60.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 51.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Over | 56c | 40.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 56c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Under | 56c | 32.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Over | 63c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 48c | 26.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 44c | 26.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 25.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…2350backed Over | 56c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…82fcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.