TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Colorado Rockiesof Colorado Rockies, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$427,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics65c50,000$32,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,50098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies53c32,295$16,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,309.78,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fc0…847dbacked Colorado Rockies33c20,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,4007042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Athletics1c16,714$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2140629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics50c15,763$7,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,818.7611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies39c13,106$5,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,01110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies35c11,783$4,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,626.493,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Colorado Rockies43c11,421$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,453.6385645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics64c11,415$7,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,332.021,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x595d…9ad0backed Athletics57c8,772$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00012342.3%52 W · 71 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies44c7,508$3,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.684,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Athletics52c7,288$3,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,794.149749.5%48 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Colorado Rockies35c7,143$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,642.9428042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Colorado Rockies41c6,119$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,618.871,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics53c5,911$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.674,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Athletics0c5,750$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.258762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Colorado Rockies36c5,430$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.957243.1%31 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Colorado Rockies50c5,389$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,720.4795045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Athletics1c3,188$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies37c3,022$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.272,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics36c2,963$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.966,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics58c2,883$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.531,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Colorado Rockies56c2,287$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.934650.9%176 W · 170 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Athletics1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018652.7%98 W · 88 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Athletics1c1,990$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Athletics51c1,740$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.8431958.6%187 W · 132 L+27.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Athletics27c1,600$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.8970735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Athletics8c1,593$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.41353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Athletics53c1,356$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.1310544.8%47 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies59c1,258$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.386,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Colorado Rockies28c1,214$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.782254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics33c1,165$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.298,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked Colorado Rockies48c1,126$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.8527450.7%139 W · 135 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Athletics62c1,124$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.1360451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies41c1,023$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.572,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Athletics51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51014050.7%71 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0094…eea5backed Athletics6c999.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60170%0 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics49c993.33$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Athletics52c931.53$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.641,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics34c906.17$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.599,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Colorado Rockies36c900$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57637748.8%184 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Athletics63c833$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.791,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6862…8c75backed Colorado Rockies38c789.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.477950.6%40 W · 39 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics42c770.36$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7197050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies65c724.68$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.354,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Athletics62c721.97$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.775,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ff7…2e67backed Athletics63c720.63$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4543240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Athletics64c709.38$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4541643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies48c697.08$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.843,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Colorado Rockies65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3813354.9%73 W · 60 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Colorado Rockies56c566.87$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.161,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics49c544.21$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.231,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Athletics65c538.46$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012852.3%67 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1884…b7a5backed Colorado Rockies30c505.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.8457758.6%338 W · 239 L+1.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Colorado Rockies65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17519566.2%129 W · 66 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Athletics22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Athletics37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18536729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Colorado Rockies37c495$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.8544643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Colorado Rockies37c489$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0768846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Colorado Rockies61c479.99$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.244,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics63c462.18$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.221,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Athletics65c457.69$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.548147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Colorado Rockies36c408.19$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.2411632.8%38 W · 78 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Colorado Rockies72c400$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.194655.3%523 W · 423 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Athletics62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022153.4%118 W · 103 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Colorado Rockies43c322.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.351,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886f…aa8fbacked Athletics63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011951.3%61 W · 58 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Colorado Rockies37c310$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.31,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Colorado Rockies37c309.64$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0751449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Colorado Rockies38c308.9$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.5320647.1%97 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Athletics57c301.89$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0810057%57 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd82…9f66backed Athletics18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015937.7%60 W · 99 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Colorado Rockies51c275.47$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6479147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Colorado Rockies36c270.27$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9738444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Colorado Rockies37c270$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Athletics44c257.07$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.111,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Colorado Rockies24c247.81$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.312,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfffa…17c5backed Athletics49c246.73$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.794759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca2…03cfbacked Athletics53c240$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.220843.3%90 W · 118 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics12c227.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.242,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Athletics74c218.39$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7920539.5%81 W · 124 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked Colorado Rockies38c217.72$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9824346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics63c215.5$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.775,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Athletics64c215$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.661250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Colorado Rockies38c210.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5379543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Colorado Rockies37c206.48$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0813247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x643c…3fc2backed Athletics7c204$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.281866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+35.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Colorado Rockies76c203.29$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9785148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Colorado Rockies36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies37c199.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.991,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Colorado Rockies47c194.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8127652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Colorado Rockies35c181.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.528638.4%33 W · 53 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics38c181.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.071,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Colorado Rockies37c180$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Colorado Rockies68c179.46$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.931,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Athletics76c177.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.341,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Colorado Rockies53c173.57$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9283053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics39c173.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.871,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Colorado Rockies36c172.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2258943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Colorado Rockies37c170$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.11,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.