Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8109e63ba233765c862d211b46a4d8c8ce30a0b2ef8b5170dfc4698b2334a46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 28c | 478.27$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 40c | 274.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.41 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 200.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 75c | 144.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 9c | 144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 138.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 132.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 129.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 120.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 43c | 117.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 63c | 106.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 91.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 88.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 66.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 40c | 61.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 60.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 49.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 49.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 47.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 47.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 41.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…1856backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 37.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 30.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…68ccbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 60c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 19.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 77c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 16.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 76c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.