South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813ed761c31e8cd49af3319d76cb009ee8a99c2ca6e3e95a49d14fd783d23eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 4,900$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 3,514$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.11 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 2,109$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,462$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.36 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 1,189$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.27 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 1,132$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.41 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 450$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 14c | 353.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…738cbacked Yes | 19c | 189.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7a21backed Yes | 19c | 186.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 14c | 173.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 17c | 169.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 14c | 157.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 10c | 122.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 80c | 116$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 18c | 108.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 17c | 94.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed Yes | 18c | 86.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 22c | 84.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 78c | 83.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 20c | 71.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 22c | 69.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 78c | 64.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 50.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 77c | 30.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…143fbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.