MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816161577f951d0d7992b6c6325a95b7fb49ba3bffd56a7e133f669ded28579e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 2,852$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.11 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 1,865$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 37c | 1,313$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.82 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 37c | 858.64$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 22c | 740.86$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Minnesota Twins | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 37c | 399.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 27c | 386.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 260$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Houston Astros | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…a58abacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 47.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Houston Astros | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…1eedbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f96backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.