TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a88…41ccbacked Houston Astros48c28,999$13,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,919.4738148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins53c27,734$14,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,163.314,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Houston Astros49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins56c17,465$9,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,764.1610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Houston Astros49c14,931$7,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,316.141,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Houston Astros48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.8253150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Minnesota Twins52c6,088$3,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.0812754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Minnesota Twins52c6,006$3,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.091,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Minnesota Twins51c4,879$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.437953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros34c4,848$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.461,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins51c4,823$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.185,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Minnesota Twins51c4,339$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.2232251.6%166 W · 156 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros30c3,349$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.752,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Minnesota Twins51c3,217$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.4677951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Minnesota Twins52c3,147$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.6189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros22c2,654$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.621,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros8c2,284$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0be…caa2backed Minnesota Twins51c2,215$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins65c2,005$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins51c1,571$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.592,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7352,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Houston Astros49c1,300$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6372268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros29c1,284$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.782,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Minnesota Twins73c1,051$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.761,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Minnesota Twins52c1,026$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.4773748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Minnesota Twins51c1,012$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.718557.6%49 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Houston Astros12c1,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3194034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Minnesota Twins51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49028258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Minnesota Twins51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4909350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins51c985.67$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.181,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Houston Astros48c967.04$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.181,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Houston Astros11c869.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6410930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros26c818.31$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.868,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19c…0e99backed Minnesota Twins51c810.99$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aad…16c3backed Houston Astros48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Houston Astros7c768.81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6557548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Houston Astros6c694.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7371850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros20c692.45$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.386,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Minnesota Twins74c680$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5947589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins62c617.27$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.811,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63cf…8cf4backed Houston Astros48c590.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…0c84backed Minnesota Twins51c579.76$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Houston Astros31c529.41$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1750337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Minnesota Twins52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Houston Astros49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24517446%80 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins52c500$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2411,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Minnesota Twins51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Minnesota Twins52c462.98$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.0511947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9622…6fefbacked Houston Astros49c456$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins50c450.25$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Houston Astros4c446.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.873929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…d4a7backed Minnesota Twins52c436.7$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.622157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb722…1098backed Houston Astros30c436.53$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.661844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Houston Astros28c421.93$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11814235.9%51 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Minnesota Twins52c419.1$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.171,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Houston Astros50c403.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros44c401$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.423,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Minnesota Twins62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15259150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Minnesota Twins52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1924055%22 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…e9f3backed Minnesota Twins52c380$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ea…8288backed Houston Astros49c379.61$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins55c363.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.632,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f0f…e25fbacked Houston Astros49c353.06$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6598…5f36backed Minnesota Twins51c352.94$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.942646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cff…eeb8backed Houston Astros8c330.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.847010%7 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Houston Astros49c325.77$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6343253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Houston Astros65c307.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20081257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe4…ff5cbacked Houston Astros4c304.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.334,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Houston Astros48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14434648.6%168 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Minnesota Twins52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.468256.1%46 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x898a…499abacked Minnesota Twins79c286.25$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.144358.1%25 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f29…768fbacked Minnesota Twins52c282.15$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.43650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d4…6999backed Houston Astros49c279.27$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e75…27edbacked Houston Astros50c274.12$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d95…985abacked Minnesota Twins51c274.04$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.28650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Minnesota Twins52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12051449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Minnesota Twins51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.538145.4%173 W · 208 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9976…59acbacked Houston Astros7c243$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.012334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins51c240.41$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.62,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x943f…d29dbacked Minnesota Twins51c233.43$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Minnesota Twins73c228.02$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0432751.7%169 W · 158 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Houston Astros43c208.74$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7360348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Houston Astros15c207.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9188046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c86…4a0abacked Minnesota Twins52c205.65$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…17cebacked Houston Astros49c203.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6980…2194backed Minnesota Twins51c202.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros48c200.04$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.026,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…701abacked Minnesota Twins51c192.83$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5404…e796backed Minnesota Twins53c176.09$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab7e…9e98backed Houston Astros49c173$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8d…fc07backed Houston Astros49c170.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dac…11bfbacked Houston Astros49c168.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d0…842dbacked Minnesota Twins52c166.71$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Houston Astros14c161.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7787352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Minnesota Twins52c153.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8579543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Minnesota Twins51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.525249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros9c149.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.262,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Minnesota Twins52c144.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2326148.3%126 W · 135 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.