MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaaadacbbb6436f4865f4d6fed01d3a5989bf367bfeaf80a65c053eecff5d678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 9,189$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 4,038$2,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.3 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under | 73c | 3,629$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 73c | 1,758$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.53 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 33c | 1,080$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 835$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 624.1$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 25c | 362.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 78c | 269.36$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 222$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 68c | 172.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Over | 28c | 138.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 73c | 112$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 59c | 92.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 68c | 81.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 57c | 80.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 73c | 55.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 46.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 27c | 44.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Under | 67c | 34.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 30.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 68c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 67c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.