MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb969dde05cd85bc86404c54a4fb44b7644bdd0eef81a69d7c47559438d755c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 5,369$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 54c | 4,660$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 1,242$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 42c | 782$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.18 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 750.77$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.98 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 28c | 731.43$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 66c | 569.98$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 34c | 481.05$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 59c | 360.11$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 27c | 354.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 40c | 351.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 41c | 321.35$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 73c | 293.52$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 280.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 259.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 59c | 226.23$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 57c | 192$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 152.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 141.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 60c | 132.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Under | 59c | 129.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 31c | 121.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 51c | 80.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 34c | 60.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 57.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 56.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Under | 60c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Over | 43c | 43.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 59c | 40.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…5c5fbacked Under | 59c | 39.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 30c | 35.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 58c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…0ff7backed Over | 44c | 33.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 60c | 32.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Under | 79c | 31.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 58c | 31.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 29.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…f09abacked Under | 58c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 41c | 26.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 61c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 69c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.