MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816779e25fd8895527ba49d2d095aa4353d92b90f4774dc8ab4f3d9f77631937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 1,645$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 1,635$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 66c | 1,233$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.78 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 26c | 1,159$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.97 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 49c | 762.85$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.95 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 708.45$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 70c | 492.98$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.22 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 60c | 317$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 33c | 297.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.52 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 255.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 244.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 168.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…5800backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 102.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 31c | 97.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 50c | 69.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 75c | 29.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 28.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 27.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 60c | 20.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 59c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.