MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05d93e82a10e9ce6a35a01489d075b2a245995d2292c122e18b3003cdce60e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 4,922$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.78 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 4,040$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 1,829$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 1,477$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 1,045$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 885.63$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 352.41$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 331$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…b070backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 293.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 263.22$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 247.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…3d83backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 149.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 75.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…935fbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 54.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 52.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 52.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 50.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 45.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 45.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 33.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 24.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.