TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,254 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdfc…bf06backed No56c2,500$1,400 inWon+$1,1006651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes44c2,500$1,100 inLost-$1,10049250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes29c183$52 inLost-$52.188,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Yes45c150$68 inLost-$67.513345.9%61 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No55c119$65 inWon+$53.551,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No71c117$83 inWon+$33.777752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes45c98.91$45 inLost-$44.513,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed No55c98.91$54 inWon+$44.5111138.7%43 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No55c96.56$53 inWon+$43.451,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed No72c66$48 inWon+$18.481,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Yes45c55.56$25 inLost-$2516349.1%80 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffd…3ef3backed No53c39.62$21 inWon+$18.628558.8%50 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes47c33.46$16 inLost-$15.731,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes39c26.28$10 inLost-$10.291,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.