Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8195b816664c86ec8c31458cc65471552f6055a5555519d67d920ea48969d323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 0c | 10,112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,481$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.02 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 800$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 404.84$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 343$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 328.79$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 262.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 11c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 235.81$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 181.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 119.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 575 | 57.7%332 W · 243 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 117$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 113.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 106.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 77.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 60c | 73.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 51c | 61.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 61.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 60.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 458 | 62%284 W · 174 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 55.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 49.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 46.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 46.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 46.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 47c | 44.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 42c | 40.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…1e08backed Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 63c | 37.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 35.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 35.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 31.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Yes | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 34c | 31.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 29.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 28.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 64c | 26.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 26.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 62c | 24.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 48c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 21.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | -31.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…aceabacked No | 61c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 62c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…879dbacked No | 64c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.