Tennis · resolved market
Pegula vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b46608de27fc89cd9f3dd3699b73b17fb9c4f6225432a23a5f59d3b1e182d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 60c | 1,900$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 1,395$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.06 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Over | 58c | 1,379$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.31 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 658.02$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.21 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 43c | 617.61$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.57 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…dec0backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -10.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 173.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under | 40c | 151.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Under | 40c | 146$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed Over | 53c | 131.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 40c | 121.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Over | 57c | 84.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ad…a4a5backed Over | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 67c | 43.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…578abacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c03…3e4fbacked Over | 57c | 26.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 57c | 25.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pegula vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Jessica Pegula vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Pegula vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs GauffPegula won
- Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs GauffGauff won
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)Gauff won
- Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Coco GauffCoco Gauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.