Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bbc245bbdae9a12e334606b728f863c0dc2f2f07b056c8e17775ccb8de7c998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gauffof Pegula, Gauff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c11…cfafbacked Gauff | 70c | 1,400$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…8ff6backed Pegula | 34c | 598$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.22 | 284 | 37.3%106 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Pegula | 34c | 539.6$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.62 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Pegula | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 152 | 25%38 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Gauff | 66c | 483$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Gauff | 55c | 453.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gauff | 61c | 410.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…c915backed Pegula | 39c | 410.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 208 | 46.2%96 W · 112 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Gauff | 49c | 343.41$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.56 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Pegula | 30c | 314.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Pegula | 30c | 293.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pegula | 4c | 285.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Pegula | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Pegula | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Pegula | 30c | 146.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Gauff | 59c | 122.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Gauff | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Gauff | 66c | 102.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Gauff | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Pegula | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Pegula | 32c | 93.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4803backed Pegula | 57c | 85.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Gauff | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Gauff | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Pegula | 33c | 75.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Gauff | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Pegula | 36c | 59.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Gauff | 45c | 57.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Gauff | 66c | 51.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Pegula | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdda…938abacked Gauff | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Pegula | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Gauff | 61c | 36.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Gauff | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…30b6backed Gauff | 44c | 34.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Pegula | 56c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)this page
- Jessica Pegula vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Pegula vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs GauffPegula won
- Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs GauffGauff won
- Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Coco GauffCoco Gauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.