MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81e8ef8eee7d704ff13d0c91b1213b4423dfc92845217bce9d7c29faebf2cdfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dba…1d6cbacked Over | 66c | 6,328$4,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,177.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 34c | 6,319$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,170.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 45c | 593.84$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 452.84$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 336.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 260.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 68c | 229.76$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 225.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 61c | 212.57$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 32c | 164.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 157.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 32c | 108$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 87.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4e5fbacked Under | 64c | 79.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 69.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Under | 33c | 67.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 32c | 61.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 59.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 32c | 49.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 43.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 41.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 36c | 40.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 62c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 72c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 71c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 22.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.