MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc02595432588a83e80999489fd0a90708c649fd0ccaaef771b6323d58207d5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 53c | 15,586$8,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,260.68 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 13,897$7,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,364.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 6,003$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 4,937$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 4,887$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 3,512$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,299$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 47c | 1,245$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.86 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 960.01$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.18 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 840$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 800$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 774.99$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.74 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 763$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 700$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 696.42$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.14 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 48c | 504.34$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.42 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 426.78$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.73 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 39c | 393.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 47c | 329.56$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 50c | 248$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 35c | 208$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 192.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 179.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 60c | 141.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 141$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 128.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 44c | 120.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 34c | 117.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 47c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 78.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 78.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Over | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Over | 34c | 51.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 71c | 49.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 47.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 49c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 41.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 67c | 38.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 61c | 33.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 51c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.