Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x820d9f36946cde70b13550cff321068465518bd673a429211c526101e8ac74d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 14c | 7,248$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.64 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 41c | 1,104$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.64 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 745.18$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 41c | 456$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 41c | 299.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 61c | 250.82$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 39c | 238.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 376 | 46.5%175 W · 201 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 233.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 219$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 58c | 211.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 123.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 387 | 53%205 W · 182 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 24c | 114.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 41c | 114$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 34c | 111.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 41c | 104.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 39c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…a0f3backed Over | 42c | 70.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…1688backed Over | 27c | 63.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 58c | 48.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d37…f790backed Over | 42c | 44.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 45c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 371 | 43.7%162 W · 209 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: Linfield FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: Linfield FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: Nõmme Kalju FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Linfield FC (-1.5)Nõmme Kalju FC won
- Spread: Nõmme Kalju FC (-1.5)Linfield FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.