NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x820fe17ab1261f3f185b8f3f38958d89a4244eb005dc82274131accbfcc9c26c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 400.83$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.43 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 48c | 330$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 298.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 278.03$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 161.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 47c | 82.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Over | 50c | 49.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.26per pick | 58cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Over | 49c | 30.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5this page
- Pelicans vs. SpursSpurs won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.