MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82252dcd558d1bca1b2a058b8fba91a4ef96371bd2c416e502f6f4bbd6ea42db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 3,686$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 1,508$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 42c | 1,362$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.17 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 54c | 699$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.46 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 76c | 625.41$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 601.29$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 35c | 382.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 361$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 65c | 261.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 35c | 256.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 187.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Under | 61c | 96.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +11.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…5b1abacked Under | 68c | 93.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 31c | 68.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 67.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 31c | 64.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 54.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 49.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 54c | 44.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 59c | 28.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 66c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.