MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bff675be363d8ad5bc884e34fd37821cd45b106e86d1b9f800f84a293ac3306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 4,958$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231.32 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 4,474$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.92 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 61c | 3,500$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.99 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 2,318$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 1,363$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.55 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 45c | 1,343$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.89 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 40c | 764.14$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.41 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 54c | 750$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 617$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.18 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 46c | 540$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 28c | 521.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 55c | 443.04$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 54c | 440$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 27c | 429$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.17 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 333.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 319.66$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 285.34$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 54c | 281.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 46c | 226.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 42c | 197.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 37c | 194.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 46c | 175.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 76c | 162.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 50c | 132.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 120.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 111.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 46c | 99.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 31c | 72.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 42c | 64.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 72c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 322 | 66.5%214 W · 108 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 42c | 56.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 29c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Under | 41c | 52.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +11.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 46c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 34c | 44.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 56c | 37.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 64c | 32.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 67c | 27.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 26.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Under | 40c | 25.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 60c | 21.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 64c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Over | 71c | 14.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.