MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6fee759a70efe5a0966af29deff7ba1e4f32ab617788af97dd2219d3aaeb0d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 648.92$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 554.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 540.54$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.95 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 426.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 317.08$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 218.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 192.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 160.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 266 | 18.4%49 W · 217 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 151.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 119.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 110.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 105.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 100.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 88.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 87.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 76.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 47.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 37.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +11.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 31.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 23.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.